Korea at the green growth crossroads
(녹색성장의 기로에 선 한국)
발행일 : 2012년 3월 16일
발행처 : HSBC
- 고에너지, 고탄소 궤도를 탈피, 녹생성장에 전념해온 한국.
- 지연된 배출권거래제의 승인, 4월 국회의원선거 이전 최종 의결 기대.
- 기후관련 기술의 수출 2005년 세계 15위에서 2010년 세계 7로 성장, 2015년에는 일본을 넘어선 세계 4위 기대
Korea’s economic success has been accompanied by rising energy consumption and an acute dependence on energy imports. Its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have doubled in the two decades to 2010. In 2008, President Lee Myungbak made a strategic decision to change course, cemented in
the country’s comprehensive Green Growth Plan (GGP).
The growth dimension of Korea’s plans focuses on the export potential of its core industrial base (e.g. batteries, LEDs, nuclear and solar). Our analysis shows that carbon constraints in Korea’s key target markets are growing; backed by government support for R&D and domestic market testing, we forecast Korea’s exports of climate-smart goods and technologies (CSGTs) will grow to 4.6% of total exports in 2015.
Turning to its green goals, Korea has committed to reducing GHG emissions by 30% below 2020 business as usual (BAU) projections and boosting the share of low-carbon energy – nuclear and renewables. It is moving cautiously to introduce carbon management in key sectors, and a domestic
emission trading scheme (ETS) is awaiting approval.
This year’s parliamentary and presidential elections pose questions about the durability of the green growth strategy under a new leadership. This report sets out the structural foundations for Korea’s GGP, and details the key investment risks and opportunities. We believe essential features of green growth policy will endure as Korea seeks to carve out a distinctive economic strategy for the decade ahead.
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